Having entered into the holiday season, we can now start to draw conclusions regarding the 2018 residential real estate market and begin to predict what the market will look like in 2019. The three aspects I will be paying close attention to in the next few months are mortgage interest rates, new listings and month’s supply of listings.
Another aspect of the real estate market that has been capturing attention recently is the uptick in new listings. Since 2012, the lack of new listings entering the market has been a major challenge for buyers. We are hopeful that the trend of increased listing activity continues through the winter and spring. This will provide more options for buyers and decrease the frantic spring and summer markets we have experienced lately.
If new listings continue to increase, we expect to see month’s supply of listings rise heading into the busy spring market. There are indications this will happen; excluding September 2018, October had the smallest decline in active listings since May 2015. Month’s supply was stable at 2.4 month’s, suggesting a tight market but also a flattening out of the pattern. In terms of month’s supply, 5-6 month’s is considered a “balanced” market. More balance would be welcome news for home buyers.
Stay tuned. What transpires over the next few slower sales months will in many ways determine the course for the residential real estate market in 2019.
Andy Fazendin – Owner/Broker